Crystal Ball Training

• Order Now
• View Pricing
• Download a Demo
• Request a Quote
• Make Enquiry

Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas

With so many risks and uncertainties associated with production forecasts, drilling costs, reservoir properties, operating expenses, and oil / gas prices, it is extraordinarily difficult to forecast earnings and cash flow for even the simplest prospects.

This two-day course will teach you how to model uncertainty and risk, identify key drivers and then refine them using an advanced suite of professional modeling tools. The course shows how to evaluate individual prospects and then how to combine them into a working portfolio optimised on your key business indicators.

This course is intended for Oil & Gas professionals involved in evaluating the economic potential of oil and gas wells, prospects, and portfolios. This audience includes asset team engineers and geoscientists charged with providing inputs and running corporate economic evaluations, as well as supervisors to mid-level management who want a hands-on understanding of modeling uncertainty associated with exploration and production operations.

Attendees should have a good working knowledge of Excel, however, experience with Crystal Ball is not a prerequisite, as beginning concepts and techniques are covered (or reviewed depending on the student's experience) in the first 1/2 day of the course.

By the end of this two-day course, you will have learned:

• The Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal Ball
• Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
• Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for Uncertainties Including Dry Hole Risk, Production Uncertainties, Expense Risks, and Price Forecasting Uncertainties
• Incorporating Historical Drilling and Completion Costs and other Historical Data Into Simulation
• Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their Importance to Simulation
• Value of Information Modeling: Shoot seismic or not?
• Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Results, including the Use Of Sensitivity analysis as a Project Management Tool
• Time Series Forecasting
• Portfolio Optimisation using Multiple Business Requirements and Constraints Including Markowitz Efficient Frontier and Sharpe's Ratio

Standard Agenda

Software used in this course: Crystal Ball Professional

Time: 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Actual start times vary by location. Please check your confirmation letter for actual start time)

Day 1: Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball

Morning Session:

1. What is Monte Carlo Simulation, and How does it Differ from Traditional Analyses?
   
   
2. Converting Spreadsheet Models to Account for Uncertainty
   i) Defining Assumptions using Distributions
   ii) Fitting to Historical Data
   iii) Correlating Dependent Assumptions
   iv) Defining Forecasts and Using Them to Predict Outcomes
   
   
3. How to Define Parameters for Running Monte Carlo Simulation
   
   
4. Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation Outcomes
   i) Sensitivity Analysis
   ii) Trend Charting
   iii) Overlay Plots

Afternoon Session:

1. Application of Crystal Ball to Variety of Financial / Business Models
   
   
2. Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
   
   
3. Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for Uncertainties Including:
   i) Dry Hole Risk
   ii) Production Uncertainties
   iii) Expense Risks
   iv) Price Forecasting Uncertainties

Day 2: Advanced O&G Modeling Using Crystal Ball

Morning Session

1. Incorporating Historical Drilling and Completion Costs and other Historical Data Into Simulation
   
   
2. Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their Importance to O&G Simulation
   
   
3. Value of Information Modeling: Shoot seismic or not?
   
   
4. Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Drilling Results, including the Use Of Sensitivity analysis as a Project Management Tool
   
   
5. Forecasting Oil Prices using Time Series Forecasting: Crystal Ball Predictor

Afternoon Session

1. Drilling / Prospect Portfolio Optimization using Multiple Business Requirements and Constraints: Optquest
   i) Markowitz Efficient Frontier
   ii) Sharpe's Ratio
   
   
2. Bootstrapping Analysis: How Good Are Your Models?
   
   
3. 2D Simulation: Isolating Difficult or Unknown Assumptions
   
   
4. Capstone Exercise: Bringing it All together

Terms and Conditions

Registration closes 5 days prior to the start of the course. The number of participants is limited.

If a cancellation occurs within less than 10 working days of the course date, the full value of the course fee will be charged. If cancelled prior to 10 working days of the course date, no cancellation fee will be charged. Cancellation fees apply to all training attendees. Hearne Scientific Software reserves the right to reschedule any course. In the event that Hearne Scientific Software cancels a course, full refunds will be issued to all paid parties.