Crystal Ball for Oil, Gas and Mining Companies
18 September, 2007
Crystal Ball software is used by the world's largest oil, gas and mining companies to analyse spreadsheet models and improve decision making. To address the financial and economic uncertainty in the global markets, these companies are increasingly using Crystal Ball for their modelling and risk analysis.
The latest release of Crystal Ball Professional includes Extreme Speed. Using Extreme Speed, simulations run 10 to 100 times faster. Extreme Speed is ideal for analysts working with large data sets. With Crystal Ball Professional, Extreme Speed and larger data sets, resource companies are transforming their Excel spreadsheet models to develop more credible risk assessments.
Sales of Crystal Ball software to oil, gas and mining companies in Australia over the past 12 months has risen dramatically. The popularity of Crystal Ball, particularly in the resources industry, has taken off since BHP Billiton revealed how the use of Monte Carlo simulations, in its spreadsheet analyses, helped make the decision to out bid Xstrata PLC for WMC Resources Ltd. This decision has been one of the most successful strategic decisions by any resources company in recent times.
Training in the application of Monte Carlo simulation and Risk Analysis using Crystal Ball software is available from Hearne Scientific Software. Most people that have attended a course run by Hearne recommend it, including people from: Chevron Corporation, BHP Billiton, ROI Institute of Australia, Iluka Resources, University of Tasmania, HLA Envirosciences Pty. Ltd, Trust Investments Management Limited, M-TAG - a unit of IMS Health, Helix RDS, DM Harrison & Associates, Alcan Inc. Training>>
Barrick Gold uses Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Mining Projects
Nathan Stubina of Barrick Gold uses Crystal Ball software to perform Monte Carlo simulation and evaluate mining projects. With Crystal Ball, input parameters such as capital, operating costs, mining rates, recoveries and metal prices can easily be varied in order to determine which of them will have the greatest impact on the project’s economic success. In this way, project engineers can understand where to direct their focus.
Nathan Stubina holds a B.Eng from McGill University and a Ph.D in metallurgical engineering from the University of Toronto. Prior to joining Barrick, he worked as a Six Sigma Master Black Belt for Falconbridge and Noranda (now part of the Xstrata Group).
A 1 hour presentation by Nathan Stubina on evaluating mining projects using Monte Carlo simulation is available online. view presentation>>
BP uses Monte Carlo Analysis as a Risk Management Tool
Many managers understand that probabilistic methods can give more reliable project time and cost estimates than deterministic alternatives. Fewer realise that by highlighting the key drivers of success, such methods can add extra value and enable a proactive approach to risk.
A 1 hour presentation by Hugh Williamson, BP's global specialist on well cost estimation and risk management, is available online. view presentation>>
Optimising the Growth Portfolio of Kumba Resources
The application and benefits of Monte Carlo simulation in optimising the growth portfolio of Kumba Resources, a diversified mining company based in South Africa. View PDF report>>
Portfolio Optimisation applied to Acquisition Evaluation
This paper describes some of the lessons learnt in building a portfolio model of petroleum assets. The example is based on the evaluation of an acquisition opportunity, a setting which imposed its own constraints on the methodology. View PDF report>>
An Application of Portfolio optimisation with Risk Assessment to Exploration & Production Projects
This paper presents an application of portfolio optimisation with risk assessment to exploration & production projects. The study aims to maximise the worth of the company while accounting, investigating and analysing the inherent uncertainties and requirements of the petroleum industry. View PDF report>>
From Monte Carlo simulation to forecasting, optimisation and real options analysis, Crystal Ball software tools are what you need. More then 85% of Fortune 500 companies use Crystal Ball Software>>
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